+27 83 629-7690 henrypool7@gmail.com
Unexpected Ice!

Unexpected Ice!

For those of you who believe that all the ice of earth is melting, I have some good news. You will recall that in one of my previous posts I showed you this graph:

I was surprised to find that it IS getting cooler in Antarctica, measured two meters above the ground (1979-2021). The source of these data is from here. This being the case, I decided to look at the current surface area of the Antarctic that is covered by ice.

Fig. 1: Antarctic ice area. Source of cropped chart parts:  NSIDC.

Though Antarctic sea ice fell to a “record minimum” in 2017 – after having reached a “record high” in 2015 – the latest data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show sea ice at the South Pole has bounced back robustly since, surging some 500,000 sq km above the mean (1981-2010). On March 26, 2017, Antarctic sea ice measured 3.055 million sq km. Four years later, sea ice reached 5.103 million sq km. That is a difference of more than 2 million sq. km., which is an area more than 1.5 x the size of South Africa!

So why would Antarctic ice grow so quickly? If the ice had disappeared, many would blame it on greenhouse gases – absurd of course. Obviously, there is a complex array of natural factors at work – factors that climate alarmists consistently have ignored over the past decades. Note this graphic here:

Warming against latitude

Fig. 2: Warming of earth versus latitude.

Shown in the picture above is a summary of the warming of all the earth from NASA-GISS made from all the data we have from 1960-2019. It shows that Antarctica is largely blueish/white. This confirms that there are still a few places on earth where it IS getting cooler, and Antarctica is one of them! Fig. 2 (bottom) shows the amount of warming as measured against latitude.

I am a bit skeptical of some of the data shown here for the southern hemisphere (SH). My own results for the SH are even lower than what is indicated here by NASA-GISS. See here some of  my results   (South Africa is mostly on the -30 latitude.)

Never mind all of that, even assuming Fig. 2 (bottom) is completely correct, it still shows exactly what I have been saying all along. Clearly, the pattern of temperature trends for the Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes and the Antarctic is not consistent with hypothesized significant man-made global warming.  Since carbon dioxide concentrations are relatively uniform across the globe on a time scale of years and show persistent upward trends since the 1970’s, these flat and downward temperature trends indicate that man-made global warming is not dominant and that other factors are likely to be more dominant over the last 40 years.  The implication is that the observed upward temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere are also being dominated by other factors.  These other factors need to be resolved before any kind of accurate future climate predictions can be made. 

In my honest opinion, predictions made assuming that man-made global warming is dominant are likely to fail.

This article appeared also in Dutch, see here, https://www.climategate.nl/2021/04/alarm-ijs-groeit-aan/ 

 

 

Easter news letter

Easter news letter

Dear friend,

It is soon Easter and if ever I heard a song that stirred my soul to realize again the importance of Easter, it must be this one: https://breadonthewater.co.za/2021/03/26/easter-song/

Indeed, the lyrics do carry the most powerful message the world has ever heard!

My own favorite Easter story is of course the one where Jesus appeared to the two men from Emmaus. It brought me to a point where I looked at the Scriptures that Jesus must have been referring to, in Luke 24:27.

See here: https://breadonthewater.co.za/2019/04/15/easter/

As a man of science, and since I first attended an exhibition in 1977, I have always been interested in the Shroud of Turin – said to be the burial cloth of Jesus Christ. Indeed, I wrote something about the Shroud here:

https://breadonthewater.co.za/2017/02/20/if-god-exists-why-cannot-we-see-him/

I was surprised to hear that in the light of the pandemic they are apparently planning an exhibition of the Shroud on television on Holy Saturday, i.e. 3/4/2021. This is really something: exhibitions of the Shroud are normally very, very scarce. I quote from Msgr. Nosiligia, Wednesday 3/3/2021:

“In these troubled times we need to nurture and communicate our hope. And for us believers the most effective way to increase the hope of the whole world is through common prayer, by kneeling before the Lord. For this reason, we celebrate also on Holy Saturday, the day of silence, before the tomb of the Lord but also of the expectation of his resurrection, a special liturgy in front of the Shroud that reminds us of this event, the living center of our faith and our hope.’ More about this here: https://www.shroud.com/latebrak.htm

Irrespective of whether you believe the Shroud is real or not, you must agree with the bishop’s sentiments. Indeed, if there is anything I hope we have learned from the Corona crisis, it is our dependence on God for health! In this respect I should also mention that it seems many of us are even suffering from some form of depression now because of all the restrictions on church and family gatherings. Let us all kneel and pray that we will soon be free from the scourge of this disease.

Crystal Cathedral Ministries SA (CCMSA) is broadcasting a special Easter service via the internet. Dr. Schuller’s message centers around John 11:25 where Jesus said: “He who lives and believes in me shall never die’.  It is the video on top of our CCMSA page. Please click on the link below:

https://breadonthewater.co.za/ccmsa/

If you missed the testimony from Immaculee Ilibagiza on how she miraculously escaped the Rwandan genocide, you must watch the video just below our Easter service!

Many thanks to each one of you who continue to support Crystal Cathedral Ministries SA with your tithes and donations. May God bless you richly.

Like many other charities at this time of Covid 19, Heart for Children is also battling with lower-than-expected income. For the time being, we have therefore put our plans that we had at the beginning of the year, on hold. I am sure that things will improve as soon as the economy picks up some steam again. In the meantime, as an extra income for Heart for Children, Annette and Adele will make greeting cards (birthday, thank-you, Xmas, sympathy, etc.) and linen shopping bags, on order. See pictures at the far end of this news letter. All proceeds will go to Heart for Children. If you are interested in ordering this from us, please contact Annette at:  annette.pool@gmail.com

Every little bit helps!

We wish you a very blessed Easter and Passover. If you are going on holiday, please travel safely! Please do stay safe and healthy by taking the necessary precautions for Covid 19.

Henry (0836297690) and Annette (0834696875)

henrypool7@gmail.com

https://breadonthewater.co.za/

 

The 1000-year Eddy cycle

The 1000-year Eddy cycle

After my recent post: see here  someone  wrote in a comment on the Dutch website  that he still remembered that he had been taught or told in history lessons that Willem Barentz went out with maps and information from both Roman times and of the time of the Vikings. In my post I had mentioned that I thought that unfortunately he was 500 years too early or too late to find that route to sail to the east via the north. That was actually because I did remember something about a 1,000-year weather cycle. The ‘coincidence’ of that difference of the approximately 1000 years between the time of the Romans AD 0 (look: here) and AD 1000 for the time of the Vikingers (look:  here) brought me back to thinking  about that 1000 year Eddy cycle.

There is actually no clear story on the internet about the Eddy cycle and where it came from and you can ask yourself: why not? Somewhere, after a lot of detours, I came across the image shown below:

 

It is Fig. 16.2 of a book, see pg. 285 here  and it was apparently arrived at  by combining the results of a number of studies including Abreu  et al,2010. It looks to me like a kind of sine function that makes you think Eddy is a pure solar cycle. In any case, it becomes clear to us from this simple schematic presentation that it is apparently warmer than normal every 1000 years or so. By the way, it is soon clear that the teachers who wrote this chapter do not 100% agree with the IPCC’s conclusions.

Same Fig. 16.2 also reminded me of a representation by William Arnold about the Gleissberg cycle that I also told you about in a previous post: look here

The image of Arnold in 1985 looked very similar but I think he was out for a decade or so with the years over the length of the Gleissberg cycle (100 years instead of 90 years).

On p. 289 and 290 of the book and later in the chapter, many studies are mentioned that confirm the existence of a millennium cycle. I will give you a list of these at the very bottom of this post. Within the boundaries of this article, it is of course impossible to go into details of each report. Suffice to say that there is indeed ample evidence that the 1,000-year-old Eddy cycle is real. Note that Debret et al (2009) points out that the 1500 year Bond cycle is probably a combination of the 2300 year Hallstatt cycle and the 1000 year Eddy cycle. D’Andrea et al (2011) used a special way to detect the Eddy cycle but mentioned as a possible cause a combination of solar and volcanic activity. My own statistical measurements, as mentioned in my previous post, showed that modern warming is not evenly distributed globally, but apparently spreads slowly southwards from the north. This confirms my suspicion that global warming in modern times is driven both, by the sun from the outside in and by the earth from the inside to outside and that it has little or nothing to do with CO2.

Thanks to a comment made by someone on a blog, I also came across this report: https://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/JAKO201401657870968.pdf

It shows that some basic research was carried out in Korea into the longer term weather cycles and it included the Eddy cycle. By measuring the concentration of different isotopes, e.g., in the ice of Greenland, you can find out something about the long-term weather cycles that affect life on earth. Towards the end of the report, I read this:

‘In addition, the Eddy cycle also shows some difference between wavelet and spectral analysis, and also among the 14C, 10Be, and 18O records. Interestingly, however, all the records of 14C, 10Be, and 18O reveal that Eddy cycle is predominant during the early half of the Holocene.’

Unfortunately, I suspect that something here was lost in translation. They meant of course the most recent part of the Holocene. If we go back to Table 4 in same report, we note that the duration of this cycle can vary by between 940 and 1000 years. So, the margin given here is much smaller than the 800-1200 as shown in the first image above.

I then went back to the first original analysis of ice that I had seen, see this report here:

https://foresight.org/some-historical-perspective/

From the above report, I just show you here the third graph: 

We see from this graph on the y-axis the derived temperature of a certain place in Greenland set against time. The graph ends at 1950 – apparently younger ice does not work.

It turns out that in the time of the Vikings, the temperature at that place in Greenland where the sample was taken went to just over -30.5. in the time of Christ, it was almost -29.5. And in the Minoan period before that, it even went even as high as -29.

This means that from 1950 onwards, a warming of + 2.5C  (from -31.5 to –29) , especially in the northern hemisphere, can be counted as completely normal and natural.

And nobody has ever seen that….?

 

Determinations of the 1000 year Eddy cycle and/or confirmation of  millennium cycles in the Holocene

General:

Steinhilber et al, 2009 & 2010; Ma, 2007; Abreu et al, 2010; Christiansen and Ljungqvist, 2012; Esper et al 2012b; Lungqvist, 2010 & 2012; Debret et al, 2009; Obrochta et al, 2012. Jiang et al, 2002 & 2005 & 2015; Oppo et al, 2003; Berner et al, 2008;Thornalley et al, 2009; D’Andrea et al, 2011; Mermil et al, 2012; Moros et al. 2012; Soon et al, 2014; Masson et al, 2000; Loehle en Singer, 2010; Singer en Avery, 2008; Perry en Hsu, 2000;

North America:

Marchitto and DeMenocal, 2003; Li et al, 2007; Willard et al, 2005; Cleroux et al, 2012; Marchitto et al, 2010; Denton en Karlen, 1973; Viau et al, 2006;

South America:

Evangelista et al, 2014; Chiessi et al, 2014; Vuille et al, 2012; Canniupan et al, 2014;

Europe:

Helama et al, 2010; Ojala et al, 2015; Esper et al, 2012 a, b; Fohlmeister et al, 2012; Mueller et al, 2005; Mangini et al, 2007; Nieman et al, 2007; Magny, 2004; Jalali et al 2015; Pena et al, 2010; Fletcher et al, 2013; Rodrigo Gamiz et al, 2014; Dermody et al, 2012;

Azia:

Thamban et al, 2007; Gupta et al, 2005; Menzel et al, 2014; Xu et al, 2002 & 2006 & 2015; Yu et al, 2012; Liu et al, 2011 & 2014; Lim et al, 2005; Oppo et al, 2009; Max et al 2012; Kravchinsky et al, 2013;

This article is also available in Dutch. See here: https://www.climategate.nl/2021/03/de-duizend-jarige-eddy-cyclus/

 

In Memoriam: Gisela Nicholson

In Memoriam: Gisela Nicholson

On 27.01.2021 Pretoria woke up to hear of  the passing on of Gisela Nicholson. Although we know that she is in her heavenly home that He has prepared for her (John Chapter 14), I am sure that it has left everyone here who knew her all deeply saddened. Our sincere condolences to her son Philip and his wife Penny (Philip is a board member of both Heart for Children and Crystal Cathedral Ministries SA!), and her daughters Rhoda, Miriam and their families.

I last saw Gisela when I delivered the calendars that she had bought in support of our charity, Heart for Children. My wife and I were surprised when we also saw her at the recent wedding of  Antoinette van de Meulen. This was just before the corona. It appeared that, like us, she also supported the “Word for the World” who does Bible translation work, that Antoinette is involved with.

What can I say about Gisela? I think she really belongs in the Hall of Faith that Paul speaks about. She was a hero. She never complained about anything. She had a heart for people and gave her time to all ministries that happened to cross her path. I first got to meet her and Kenneth when she wanted to help the prison ministry that both myself and Philip were involved with. 

I am sure that one of the things we discussed at that time in Sinoville, and subsequent later meetings, was the type of  interaction we should take when first approaching and befriending a prisoner, by letter writing and visits. In fact, from those meetings, this letter may have found some of its origin: 

Letter to a prisoner (Prison Ministry)

 I invite you to watch Gisela’s  memorial service (see below). You will be amazed by the goodness of  Gisela’ s heart and how many charities, missions and ministries she was involved with. After the service, I realized that in a way she and myself had been much alike. Before 1995, we had both spent a lot of time trying to convince our spiritual leaders that apartheid was wrong and it seems we suffered exactly the same frustrations in trying to get things straight…. 

It appears that the last mission that Gisela was helping, was under the impression that the money they received came from overseas funders, when in fact it had really been coming from her own pocket…..Can I propose that we honor Gisela’s life by making a donation to this charity? Bank details of Lefika Camp Site of the Jubilee Hospital in Hammanskraal: 

Account Name: Lefika Camp

Bank: First National Bank

Branch: 210648

Account Number: 62027561051 

 

Am I a climate denier / denialist?

Am I a climate denier / denialist?

This article also appeared in Dutch, namely on Climategate.nl. Click on:

https://www.climategate.nl/2021/01/ben-ik-dan-wel-een-klimaatontkenner/

Roy Spencer is an influential climate scientist. I am responding to the article on his blog, here

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/01/no-roy-spencer-is-not-a-climate-denier/

Hi Roy,

I checked the theory of manmade warming due to increasing greenhouse gasses.

I am sorry to say that I could not find any empirical evidence for it. I first looked at all daily data over the last 40 years of 10 weather stations in my immediate vicinity. Here is my report from 2018 on that: No climate change in South Africa 

I subsequently looked randomly at 27 stations on the southern hemisphere (SH) and 27 stations on the northern hemisphere (NH). To summarize: I find that (on the ground) for all these stations that had daily data going back 40 years, there was warming of 0.002K/annum on average in the SH compared to 0.023K/annum on average in the NH. My global result of 0.012K/annum is in fact very much the same as your own result (UAH) in 2015, when I did this investigation (I can show you my results). Looking at minima, my results are even more surprising. I find that in the SH minima have dropped by -0.0138K/year en in the NH it went up by +0.0237K/year 

It seemed obvious to me that the earth is warming, but the theory of more CO2 causing it, made no sense to me. As a chemist I know that CO2 diffuses equally into all areas of the atmosphere. Therefore, if the warming of earth were caused by more CO2, the rate of warming should be the same wherever I measure (on the ground). Subsequently I looked at the temperatures of the oceans. I am sure you might be interested in looking at this: graph

If we compare the difference of the warming of the oceans in the SH with that of the NH, (in the above graph) I get ca. 0.01K/annum for the SH and ca. 0.02K/annum for the NH (over the past 40 years). Again, we see that this result flies in the face of the theory of warming caused by CO2 as the increase in CO2 is always evenly spread above all the oceans. In addition to this, we find that the arctic ocean is warming at a rate that is even much more than that of the average of the NH oceans….On the other hand, it appears that in Antarctica, there is no warming whatsoever, e.g see 

 

 

and also : here

 

In contrast, apparently the arctic area is warming at a rate of 0.0511 K/annum over the past 40 years.

I can therefore also not agree to the theory of ‘polar’ amplification, i.e., the relative increase in warming due to CO2 in the polar regions.   

Fact is that I could not find any warming caused by more CO2. The theory is not supported by simple observations. Looking at it from the 4 corners of the world, by latitude, it is clear to me that the extra warming of earth is coming from the north and spreading slowly to the south. 

Inter alia, I think that the area in the arctic oceans where the CO2 should sink:

2H2O + CO2 + cold  =>  <=  HCO3- + H3O+ (1)

is becoming smaller. That explains the zigzag measured in Hawaii, and perhaps also the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, mostly, since the area where the CO2 sinks in Antarctica has stayed constant over the past 40 years or so.

In my opinion, some of the reasons for the warming of earth could be:

  • A natural cause e.g., the Eddy cycle (every ca. 1000-1100 years), possibly due to a re-alignment of earth’s inner core with that of the sun (magnetic stirrer effect). Why would one of my country men, Willem Barentz, risk his live and that of his crew 500 years ago, unless he was sure that the passage to the east via the north MUST have existed? One of the commenters on the Dutch blog clearly remembers from history lessons more than 50 years ago that Willem had documented evidence of a passage to the east via the north, both from Roman times and from the time of the Vikings. The difference in time between the two periods is amazing. Willem was just 4 or 5 hundred  years too late, or too early, whichever. Pity that most people now do not even want to find same passage, even if they get it for free…
  • More volcanism, especially around Greenland, Iceland and the Arctic. Who says that the cooling of earth since Genesis is on a smooth downward curve? I am sure there might be a few hick-ups here and there, especially because of the interactions between the sun and earth.
  • Soot on ice caused by shipping causes melting of ice – this phenomenon is well known. In this respect I should perhaps mention the (silly) increase in traffic due to the shipping of ‘biomass’ (wooden chips) from north America and eastern Europe to western Europe. These ships probably use the cheapest oil fuel they can get…
  • Increased vegetation on land e.g. see this report from Christy et al. Just take a minute to at least read the conclusion. My own results found at certain places with increased vegetation confirm the results of Christy et al.
  • The waste of 7 billon people and even more animals and many factories is mostly acidic. This pushes the equilibrium of the reaction (1) back, causing more CO2 in the atmosphere. But clearly, as argued before, it is probably not the increase in CO2 causing the warming. It is much more plausible that the warming is due to the increase in salinity, trapping more heat in the oceans. We also know that organic contamination accumulating on top of the water, traps heat.

So tell me now, do you think that I am a climate denier/ denialist?

 

Blessings to you all!

Henry Pool

Pretoria, South Africa