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Seeking Allah, finding Jesus!

Seeking Allah, finding Jesus!

 If you have the time (the video is almost 2 hours long), you must watch the testimony of Nabeel Qureshi. Once I started I could not stop watching until the video had finished. I was so saddened to learn afterwards that Nabeel had passed on to be with Jesus. But now watch the video that was made after Nabeel’s death.  Note where the curse from Islam onto Jews and Christians comes from. Nabeel’s book is apparently available from Cum Books.

By the way, if you are wondering who Lee Strobel is, who is doing the introductions, watch the latest video on our CCMSA page, here:

https://breadonthewater.co.za/ccmsa/

Hymns from the Crystal Cathedral

Hymns from the Crystal Cathedral

Hymns from the Crystal Cathedral Part 1

by Various | Live recordings from the Crystal Cathedral

Hymns from the Crystal Cathedral Part 2

by Various | Live recordings from the Crystal Cathedral

Hymns from the Crystal Cathedral Part 3

by Various | Live recordings from the Crystal Cathedral

Global warming due to, ehhh…., Global greening!

Global warming due to, ehhh…., Global greening!

If you are interested in the subject of global warming, you should take some time to watch this interview of a renowned experienced climate expert.

We all know that in the process of photo-synthesis, plants and trees need carbon-dioxide (CO2) in order to grow. What struck me were the things William Happer said about more CO2 in the air CAUSING more greening. To quote from the report that he referred to: ‘Increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have helped boost green foliage across the world’s arid regions over the past 30 years through a process called CO2 fertilisation, according to CSIRO research.

In findings based on satellite observations, CSIRO, in collaboration with the Australian National University (ANU), found that this CO2 fertilisation correlated with an 11 per cent increase in foliage cover from 1982-2010 across parts of the arid areas studied in Australia, North America, the Middle East and Africa, according to CSIRO research scientist, Dr Randall Donohue.’

Source: Deserts ‘greening’ from rising CO2 – CSIROpedia

Professor Happer notes that if plants receive more CO2 from the air, they become more resilient and can survive with less water. Hence, the observed greening of the desert areas. It seems CO2 is our dung in the air: “more CO2? Yes, please!”

In a more recent study it appears that some of the extra greening of earth is also linked to human activities….:

‘Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.’

“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.”

Source: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/human-activity-in-china-and-india-dominates-the-greening-of-earth-nasa-study-shows/

Ja. Ja. Sure. We all want more lawns and more trees in our towns and in our own backyards. Planting of trees is what we now teach all our children, to absorb our CO2 emissions. This is happening everywhere in the world now. That is not a bad thing. Also, for more people to live, we need bigger crops….Nothing wrong with all of that! But what does all of this extra greening do to local temperature? A first indication came to me from reading a report from John Christy, published in 2006. I show the conclusion of the report:  

‘Our results indicate that the central San Joaquin Valley has experienced a significant rise of minimum temperatures (∼3°C in JJA and SON), a rise that is not detectable in the adjacent Sierra Nevada. Our working hypothesis is that the rapid valley warming is caused by the massive growth in irrigated agriculture. Such human engineering of the environment has changed a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain, thus altering the surface energy balance in a way we suggest has created the results found in this study.’

Source: Methodology and Results of Calculating Central California Surface Temperature Trends: Evidence of Human-Induced Climate Change? in: Journal of Climate Volume 19 Issue 4 (2006) (ametsoc.org)

During my statistical analysis of 54 weather stations back in 2015, see Table 1, An Inconvenient Truth | Bread on the water, I came across 2 weather stations with somewhat puzzling results. In statistics, we call these results  ‘outliers’. In the case of Las Vegas (USA), I found the minimum temperature rising by 5 degrees C since 45 years ago, pushing up the average temperature by almost 3 degrees C. In the case of Tandil (ARG) we find the minimum temperature decreasing by 2.2 C over same period, dragging the average temperature also down by almost 2 degrees C.

For more details, see here:

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/track?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:79f6de4b-11f6-40e0-b1a0-2981363ef005

Now, as we know, 50 years ago, Las Vegas was a desert. There was no running water. Water was brought in from afar and gradually the desert was changed and developed for human habitation. Sure, some of the warming noticed in Las Vegas may be due to an urban heat effect as many skyscrapers were also built. But most probably not all of it. I am sure the change of the desert area into a big green oasis had something to do with it. (1)

In contrast, it appears that in Tandil many forest trees were chopped for logging or to make way for agricultural – and housing developments. A loss of about 10-15% in leaf area is apparent (see picture, area is orange). (2)

Looking again at my own results for South-Africa, I find that Johannesburg is about the only place here that shows some significant warming over the past 40 years. Here too, there was no running water or river. It used to be a savannah area. But there was gold….(3)

Note again the picture at the beginning of this post. Do you see that the leaf areas around the arctic seas all appear to have increased by more than 50%? Remember that it was here that we found most of the warming taking place? See: An Inconvenient Truth | Bread on the water  (4). We were also aware of the difference in the warming of earth where there is more land (5), i.e. in the NH, see: Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs 

In his latest report on Climate Change in Alabama, John Christy wrote:

‘Every trend calculation starting from 1895 through 2010 and ending in 2020 produces more warming in the lows than the highs’.

Which is exactly what  we would expect if the trend of greening in Alabama is increasing. Indeed: It is up about 10% from 1982 (if my chart at the top of this post is correct). (6)

These 6 observations all support the argument that it is the extra greening [of earth] that is causing extra heat entrapment.

Christmas and the coming of Peace

 I must have written  this compilation of biblical texts towards the end of a year, sometime in the early 90’s, possibly 1992. [I am sorry, I cannot remember the exact date]. It accompanied a letter of mine to president de Klerk asking for the release of all political prisoners, also those that were imprisoned for refusing to do military service. My argument at the time was that people who had not committed any violent crimes toward any other person should not belong in a prison. I am sure that if you read carefully through the texts that I had selected, you will note that in between the lines I suggested to the president that he open up discussions with ‘the enemy’ …….

Christmas and the coming of Peace

Isa. 9:6,7a  For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace. Of the increase of his government and peace there shall be no end,

Luke 2:11-14 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord.  And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.  And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.

 Prov. 10:6 Blessings are upon the head of the righteous: but violence overwhelms the mouth of the wicked.

 Prov. 12:20  Deceit is in the heart of them that plot evil: but for the counsellors of peace there is joy.

 Prov. 16:7  When a man’s ways please the LORD, he makes even his enemies to be at peace with him.

 Rom. 12: 21,22 If your enemy is hungry, give him food to eat; if he is thirsty give him water to drink. In doing so you will heap burning coals on his head and the Lord will reward you.

Mat. 5:9  Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God.

 Mat. 5:38,39 You have heard that it was said: ‘An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth’. But I tell you: do not resist an evil person. If someone strikes you on the right cheek, turn to him the other side also.

 Mat. 5:43-45 You have heard that it was said: ‘Love your neighbor and hate your enemy’. But I tell you: love your enemies, bless those who curse you, do good to those who hate you, that you may be sons of your Father in heaven.

Rom. 12: 17,22 Do not repay evil with evil. Do not be overcome by evil but overcome evil with Good.

Eph. 2: 17 He came and preached peace to you who were far away and peace to those who were near.

1 John 4:18-21 There is no fear in love. But perfect love drives out fear because fear has to do with punishment. We love because He first loves us. If anyone says, “I love God’, yet hates his brother, he is a liar. For anyone who does not love his brother, whom he has seen, cannot love God whom he has not seen. And He has given us this command: Whoever loves God must also love his brother.

James 3:16-18 For where there is envy and selfish ambition, there you also find disorder and every evil practice. But the wisdom that comes from heaven is first of all pure; then peace loving, considerate, full of mercy and good fruit, impartial and sincere. Peacemakers who sow in peace raise a harvest of righteousness.

Mat. 7:12 So, in everything, do to others what you would like them to do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I was so surprised to receive a personal answer from the president, in a letter delivered to my home address. He promised to look into the matter of releasing mentioned prisoners. It was of course not long after that he began having discussions with Nelson Mandela and the rest is history. Of course it was still an uphill battle for him and many of us to get a mandate from his people. I also want to mention Prof. Heyns here, with whom I also had some correspondence. The difference in opinion split the NG church.  Standing up against apartheid  cost him his life.

I do not think many people realize how close we all came to a long drawn out civil war, if it had not been for the vision of F.W. de Klerk.

Fare Well, F.W. de Klerk. I am sure we will meet up with you one day, in your mansion in the sky!

John 14: 1-3 Let not your heart be troubled; you believe in God, believe also in Me. In My Father’s house are many mansions. If it were not so, I would have told you. I go to prepare a place for you. And if I go and prepare a place for you, I will come again and receive you to Myself; that where I am , there you may be also.

This is the wonderful promise of God coming to earth: Jesus has declared that our future with Him is secure. Our ‘homecoming’ in heaven will be filled with joy as we meet our Lord.  However, let this never keep us from doing His will on earth, as it is in heaven, now:

Your will be done on earth as it is in heaven | Bread on the water

 Click on the above link to read this post.

Fare Well, F.W. de Klerk

Fare Well, F.W. de Klerk

I must have written  this compilation of biblical texts towards the end of a year, sometime in the early 90’s, possibly 1992. [I am sorry, I cannot remember the exact date]. It accompanied a letter of mine to president de Klerk asking for the release of all political prisoners, also those that were imprisoned for refusing to do military service. My argument at the time was that people who had not committed any violent crimes toward any other person should not belong in a prison. I am sure that if you read carefully through the texts that I had selected, you will note that in between the lines I suggested to the president that he open up discussions with ‘the enemy’ …….

Christmas and the coming of Peace

Isa. 9:6,7a  For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace. Of the increase of his government and peace there shall be no end,

Luke 2:11-14 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord.  And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.  And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.

 Prov. 10:6 Blessings are upon the head of the righteous: but violence overwhelms the mouth of the wicked. 

 Prov. 12:20  Deceit is in the heart of them that plot evil: but for the counsellors of peace there is joy. 

 Prov. 16:7  When a man’s ways please the LORD, he makes even his enemies to be at peace with him. 

 Rom. 12: 21,22 If your enemy is hungry, give him food to eat; if he is thirsty give him water to drink. In doing so you will heap burning coals on his head and the Lord will reward you.

Mat. 5:9  Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God. 

 Mat. 5:38,39 You have heard that it was said: ‘An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth’. But I tell you: do not resist an evil person. If someone strikes you on the right cheek, turn to him the other side also.

 Mat. 5:43-45 You have heard that it was said: ‘Love your neighbor and hate your enemy’. But I tell you: love your enemies, bless those who curse you, do good to those who hate you, that you may be sons of your Father in heaven.

Rom. 12: 17,22 Do not repay evil with evil. Do not be overcome by evil but overcome evil with Good.

Eph. 2: 17 He came and preached peace to you who were far away and peace to those who were near. 

1 John 4:18-21 There is no fear in love. But perfect love drives out fear because fear has to do with punishment. We love because He first loves us. If anyone says, “I love God’, yet hates his brother, he is a liar. For anyone who does not love his brother, whom he has seen, cannot love God whom he has not seen. And He has given us this command: Whoever loves God must also love his brother.

James 3:16-18 For where there is envy and selfish ambition, there you also find disorder and every evil practice. But the wisdom that comes from heaven is first of all pure; then peace loving, considerate, full of mercy and good fruit, impartial and sincere. Peacemakers who sow in peace raise a harvest of righteousness.

Mat. 7:12 So, in everything, do to others what you would like them to do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I was so surprised to receive a personal answer from the president, in a letter delivered to my home address. He promised to look into the matter of releasing mentioned prisoners. It was of course not long after that he began having discussions with Nelson Mandela and the rest is history. Of course it was still an uphill battle for him and many of us to get a mandate from his people. I also want to mention Prof. Heyns here, with whom I also had some correspondence. The difference in opinion split the NG church.  His stance cost him his life.

I do not think many people realize how close we all came to a long drawn out civil war, if it had not been for the vision of F.W. de Klerk. 

John 14: 1 Let not your heart be troubled; you believe in God, believe also in Me. In My Father’s house are many mansions. If it were not so, I would have told you. I go to prepare a place for you.

Fare Well, F.W. de Klerk. I am sure we will meet up with you one day, in your mansion in the sky!

 

 

An Inconvenient Truth

An Inconvenient Truth

This post is also available in Dutch,
https://www.climategate.nl/2021/11/een-ongemakkelijke-waarheid-2/

About a decade ago, after seeing the movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, and noticing the ice melt in the Arctic, I was concerned that the theory of manmade global warming (AGW) is correct and indeed happening. Feeling a bit guilty about driving my big old diesel truck, and just to be sure, I considered that here [in Pretoria, South Africa] I could easily prove and confirm the theory. Namely the logic following from AGW theory is that more carbon dioxide (CO2) coming into the atmosphere would trap heat on earth. Hence, we should find minimum temperature rising, pushing up the average temperature. Here, in Pretoria, in the winter months, we hardly ever get any rain, but we have many people burning fossil fuels to keep warm at night. On any cold winter’s day that results in the town area being covered with a brown-greyish layer of air, viewable from a high hill outside town in the early morning. I figured that as the population increased over the past 40 years, the results of my analysis of the daily data [of a Pretoria weather station] must show minimum temperature rising, particularly in the winter months. Much to my surprise, I found that minimum temperatures here in Pretoria were falling, any month….

I first thought that somebody must have made a mistake: the extra CO2 was cooling the atmosphere, not warming it. That made sense to me as I knew that whilst there were absorptions of CO2 in the areas of the infra-red spectrum where earth emits [which would trap heat on earth], there are also the areas of absorption in the UV- and 1-2 um- and the 4-5 um range where the sun emits [which would send some heat to space].

Not convinced either way by my deliberations and discussions as a blogger on several websites, I looked at 10 other weather stations in the region to give me an indication of what was happening. In 2018 I updated the results of these 10 stations. They all have good daily data for the period 1977 – 2017, mostly. My own data were always obtained from tutiempo.net. The results are reported here:

summary of climate change south africa.xlsx (dropbox.com)

Strike 1:

My finding was that the ambient temperature in South Africa over the past 40 years had not changed, whereas, on average, minimum temperatures have dropped by 0.8K here.

Puzzled by my initial results, and still wondering about the ice melt, I decided to take a random sample of weather stations (ws) from all over the world. I ended up with 27 ws from each hemisphere that had good daily data going back 40 years. Being well trained in taking representative samples and looking carefully at my earth globe, I decided:

  • Equal number of ws in the northern and southern hemisphere.
  • As far as possible all ws balanced in latitude to 0 degrees or as close as possible to zero.
  • All ws distributed 60%/40% @sea / on land – this is representing the appearance of earth.
  • Always looking at the average change per year i.e., the derivative of the least squares’ equation.

The reasoning behind this sampling procedure was that I could minimize both the differences in height & light exposure and the differences in measurement methods between ws.

I conducted this investigation in 2015. Results include those of 2014. My results are summarized in the Table below. Original results were multiplied by 10 to show the results in degrees Kelvin per decade. Results for each of the 54 ws can be supplied upon request.

Table 1

Period: 1974-2014

Change in degrees K / decade

 

Hemisphere:

Maxima:

Minima:

Average:

Southern  (27 ws)

0.416

     -0.138

0.017

Northern  (27 ws)

0.258

       0.237

0.234

Balance on latitude

                                    15.82 degrees

Global

0.337

      0.0495

0.126

My overall global result for the warming was 0.126 K/decade over the last 40 years and this was the same result as what Spencer and others had in 2015. This proves that my sampling method was good. However, my data set provided extra information about minimum temperatures that did not fit the theory of AGW…..

Strike 2:

My finding was that the ambient temperature in the southern hemisphere (SH) over the past 40 years had not changed much (0.017 x 4 = 0.07K). On average, minimum temperatures in the SH have dropped by 0.6K.

It appeared that the results I had obtained for the southern hemisphere were not even that much different than those I had found in South Africa.

Now what?

At some or other stage I came across the data from GISS LOTI. This is the global data set from NASA. Original data, see here

The figure below is a summary of all the data that they have from all the weather stations, January through to December, from 1960 until 2019, both in the NH and in the SH. Note the graphic on the bottom, showing the increase in warming versus latitude:

 

Warming against latitude

Strike 3:

The finding by NASA was that the warming of earth increases exponentially from 0 to +90 degrees latitude.

60 to 70% of earth is water. It would therefore be interesting to see what the warming rate is in the water around the world. The data set most often being used for the sea surface temperature is HADSST3.

 Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Carefully looking at the above graphs, we can get a reasonable accurate estimate of the rate of warming over the past 50 years. It is ca. 0.17K/decade in the NH and about 0.09K/decade in the SH. In the water around the ‘Hoek van Holland’ they measured 0.30K of warming per decade since 1970. See here  According to this report:  Sea Surface Temperature (noaa.gov) it appears that the rate of the warming of the Arctic ocean at the highest latitude is now about 0.7K/decade.

I am a bit confused as to what happens in Antarctica. It appears that the surface of ice is growing, and it is also getting cooler when measured 2 meters above the ground. See here: https://breadonthewater.co.za/2021/04/05/unexpected-ice/

 However, it is claimed that there is still net ice loss, as measured by the satellites. I am doubtful about these results, as I wonder how they calibrated their equipment to ‘measure’ the original thickness of ice. See also further analysis by an independent party shown further down. Never mind that controversy, let us assume that at least half of the warmth as measured in the SH has arrived in and around Antarctica and is removing some ice there from the bottom.

The results of the warming of the seas and oceans are summarized by me in the Table below (to find the origin of the result you can click on it) :

Table 2

Latitude

Change in degrees K / decade

 

  Period Result
-90 (my own estimate) 1970-2021 0.045
-90 to 0 (average) 1970-2021 0.09
  0 to 90 (average) 1970-2021 0.17
+52 (North Sea -@HoekvanHolland) 1970-2021 0.30
+58 (Baltic Sea) 1993-2020 0.53
+90 (Chukchi Sea) 1982-2017 0.70

Strike 4:

As before, my finding here is that the warming of the oceans is directly related to latitude. The lower the latitude the lower the warming rate.

Despite most of the innumerable glaciers worldwide retreating, one of the few unusual glaciers that maintains in a state of equilibrium is the large Perito Moreno Glacier because it continues to accumulate mass at a rate similar to that of its loss.[1] The reason remains debated by glaciologists.[2] See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perito_Moreno_Glacier

At least 58 New Zealand glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, with Franz Josef Glacier (Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere) advancing nearly continuously during this time. See here:  https://www.victoria.ac.nz/news/2017/02/explaining-new-zealands-unusual-growing-glaciers

Strike 5:

It appears that glaciers in the southern hemisphere are either in a state of equilibrium or advancing…..

How about snowfall? Note this report from a blogger friend about snowfall:

Real Global Snowfall Trend – Zoe’s Insights (phzoe.com)

Strike 6:

Measured from 1980, it appears snowfall has been increasing in the southern hemisphere and decreasing in the northern hemisphere. The global trend is actually up, but this appears to be due to the extra snowfall in the SH…

How is it going with the ice, exactly? I could have shown you the graph I had from Wood for Trees showing an increase in ice surface in the Sh and a decrease in ice surface on the Nh. But it seems Zoe Phin has found another source for the information which could just as well be correct . See here: Global Sea Ice Area – Zoe’s Insights (phzoe.com)

Strike 7:

The large loss in sea ice in the northern hemisphere is more than made up for by a larger gain in sea ice in the southern hemisphere.

With so many strikes against, surely AGW is out and it is now game over! 

Clearly, the heat that warms the earth is coming from the north and is slowly spreading south. Since the extra carbon dioxide that came into the atmosphere since the 1970’s is uniformly spread across the globe, the observed temperature trends indicate that global warming due to carbon dioxide was not the dominant factor over the last 50 years. It appears that the warming observed in the northern hemisphere is dominated by other factors. These factors need to be identified and resolved before any kind of accurate future climate predictions can be made.

In my honest opinion, predictions made assuming that global warming due to carbon dioxide is dominant, are likely to fail.