INTRODUCTION

Most of my family and friends know that as a hobby I like to look at the weather and the related issues of climate change. Needless to say that many have already asked me to write something about my findings. I have always held back a bit. Climate and climate change is really such a very difficult subject. It is so complicated! One challenge is already to write something in such a way so that the average person can easily understand it. For example, there are at least 6 solar cycles that we have identified; namely, of average year lengths ca. 11 (Schwabe), 22 (Hale-Nicholson)), 87 (Gleissberg), 210 (De Vries), 1000 (Eddy) and 2500 (DeBray) years, respectively.  Those are just the ones we know of.

I also found high correlation between the position of certain planets and some of the sine waves of irradiance in these solar cycles. [Correlation does not necessarily mean causation, but it could]. It appears the moon may also have influence on the weather, by facilitating either more or less mixing, of the upwelling cold waters from the deep oceans, depending on the difference between your low and high tides. Furthermore, probably due to a combination of solar, lunar and planetary influences there is evidence of an apparent 62 year cycle that affects the temperature of the oceans. Since the oceans have much more mass than the atmosphere, it is the sea surface temperature that we should keep an eye on to predict global temperature. Last, and probably not least, we still have an elephant in the room. Most people only think about this monster once they start sweating, after going deep into a mine. Note that he has been moving, lately, faster this last 100 years than in the century before; north-east, to be exact, if we go by the magnetic north pole. For those not sure what I mean: I am talking about earth’s inner core, which consists of hot molten iron and I strongly suspect that its movement due north-east could be the main reason for the currently observed Arctic & Greenland ice melt. If you have visited Iceland or Hawaii and seen some of the volcanic eruptions there,  you must realize that this process is going on, all the time, in large areas on the bottom of the Atlantic- and the Pacific oceans….In fact, in the interglacial periods that the earth has been going through,  temperatures were occasionally higher than they are at present, resulting in the melting of the ice sheets (mostly Antarctica/Arctic/ Greenland), and a sea level much higher than today. Around the Cape here (South Africa) you can see the places when the water was in fact 30 meters higher than today and in those days the Cape Peninsula was just a string of islands. Of course we cannot blame man for this ……..can we? Due to the melting of ice in Greenland, some settlements that were made by the Vikings more than a 1000 year ago, are only now becoming visible and explorable… (Eddy cycle?)

For the past 10000 years (Holocene) in the current interglacial, sea levels have remained more or less constant and this is the period when man showed up on earth….. \\despite an apparent decline in local temperature in most places in Antarctica, it appears that some ice is lost there is well. The only explanation for this melting of ice in the Antarctic could be increased volcanic activity in that area.

I considered that with so much heat coming from all kinds of natural origin it becomes very difficult to see if there is really any man made warming [e.g. by us adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere] and what percentage of warming, if any, we could attribute to it, compared to the natural warming due to e.g. a hotter sun, more volcanic activity, etc.

Feeling a bit guilty about driving my big old truck, I decided that I should test the theory of man made warming, to satisfy myself, at the very least….With all the hype created about our ‘carbon footprint” it seems we have forgotten that we are all made of carbon and that everything we eat depends on getting that same CO2. It is our ‘dung’ in the air, so to speak.

……I hope you can see what my problem was investigating this issue…and how really complicated….

To be sure, Jesus did mention that nobody knows for sure which way the wind will blow, exactly, and indeed, you will now understand why He was right about that!

INVESTIGATIONS AND RESULTS

Without going into too much detail then, let me try to give a small summary of my investigations into climate change that started in ca. 2009/2010

Concerned to show that man made global warming (AGW ) is correct and indeed happening, I thought that here [in Pretoria, South Africa] I could easily prove that. Namely the logic following from AGW theory is that more carbon dioxide (CO2) would trap heat on earth; hence we should find minimum temperature rising pushing up the mean temperature. Here, in Pretoria, in the winter months, we hardly have any rain but we have many people burning fossil fuels to keep warm at night. On any particular cold winter’s day that results in the town area being covered with a brown-greyish layer of air, viewable from a high hill outside town in the early morning.

I figured that as the population increased over the past 40 years, the results of my analysis of the data [of a Pretoria weather station] must show minimum temperature rising, particularly in the winter months. Much to my surprise, I found that the opposite was happening: minimum temperatures here were falling, any month….

I first thought that somebody must have made a mistake: the extra CO2 was cooling the atmosphere, ‘not warming’ it. As a chemist, that made sense to me as I knew that whilst there were absorptions of CO2 in the area of the spectrum where earth emits, there are also the areas of absorption in the UV and 1-2 um and the 4-5 um range where the sun emits. Not convinced either way by my deliberations and discussions as on a number of websites, I first looked at a number of weather stations around me, to give me an indication of what was happening:

The results puzzled me even more. God was throwing a ball at me…..The speed of cooling here followed a certain pattern, best described by a quadratic function.[Note: the black figures in the table are the derivatives of the least square equations that you get by doing the backward regressions for each period as indicated, for each weather station, as applicable; this part of my investigation was done in 2015 and therefore included the results of 2014.]

My latest results on how the temperatures in South Africa have changed over the past 40 years are here:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/h7944heslj7gg7q/summary%20of%20climate%20change%20south%20africa.xlsx?dl=0

I carefully looked at my earth globe and decided on a particular sampling procedure to find out what the global result would be. There are 54 weather stations in my global sample, 27 of each hemisphere, and all 54 stations are carefully balanced to zero latitude. I do not include all the black figures again but needless to say that I can show those figures if requested. Here is just the graph showing my final result on that:

When I first saw this graph, I was even more surprised. It showed a perfect curve, Rsquare =1, over the period examined, 1973 – 2015, which is more or less one half the size of the 87 year Gleissberg solar cycle. The fact that I am  finding that earth is already cooling – however small the amount may be – and the perfect natural curvature means of course that there is no AGW or it is simply so small that we cannot even measure it compared to the natural factors at work.

OBVIOUSLY, simple physics tells me that as the temperature differential between the poles and equator grows larger due to the cooling from the top, very likely something will also change on earth. Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, in a cooling world there is more likely less moisture in the air, but even assuming equal amounts of water vapor available in the air, a lesser amount of clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become both cooler (winters) and warmer (drier summers). It is happening already, is it not?

DISCUSSION AND FURTHER INVESTIGATIONS

Admittedly, the observed drop in the global minimum temperature over time is not much: it is about -0.2 degree C (or -0.2K) since 2000 but bear in mind that this is for an observer standing on the equator.

Having answered the important question on the issue of AGW, [at least for myself], I still had to think about natural climate change and how that could all affect us, here in South Africa. The drought times here are notorious. I found one weather station with good rainfall data going back almost 100 years, namely in Potchefstroom, and here is my result of the analysis of my data on that:

Notes:

  1. As you can see, the trend line in the first graph showing the average rainfall as recorded each year is almost straight: in other words, over the period of 92 years examined, the rainfall pattern in Potchefstroom has not really changed.
  2. If we sort the results into the relevant solar cycles, we note that the rainfall pattern seems to follow an equation similar to that of the path of the pendulum of a clock: Going up and coming down. The 4 Hale cycles make up for the one Gleissberg cycle. This means that in 2014 the pendulum was at its highest point. Consequently, it must come down again, as indicated by me with the red line. So indeed, yes, looking into the future, it does look like we are going to have some 5% less rain, here, in South Africa, compared to the previous Hale cycle.
  3. Now, again, a 5% drop in precipitation for the next few decades may not sound like a lot but remember that our population is still growing and our economy is still expanding. In the future, we need to collect more water or start using less…..

CONCLUSIONS

Isn’t all of this terribly interesting and absorbing? The weather just works like a clock. There is really nothing man can do to change it. I realize that the weather is part of God’s creation and everything I have found during my studies is further proof of a very intricate and extremely intelligent design, made exactly in such a way so as to prevent overheating or even too much cooling [in the present ages].

For example, we all know, especially here in South Africa, that a cloudy day is a cooler day. Imagine the sun [or even man, if you want to believe that], causing overheating: what would happen on earth? Well, 70% is covered by water, so we would get more clouds. More cloudiness means of course  cooler weather. This is earth’s first defense system against too much heat. But there are in fact many more such defense systems that prevent earth from overheating, e.g.,  by the chemicals manufactured at the top of the atmosphere by the most dangerous radiation coming from the sun, etc.

Too much cooling could in fact become a problem at some time in the future but I am hoping that man, with current technology available, could find the means to defend earth against too much global cooling.

However, must say that from the Scriptures we do  know that it is only God who knows the exact date when the clock [for earth] will stop. For some or other reason it seems to coincide exactly with the time when the persecution of those who believe {in Jesus as their Saviour}  is at its highest. Trust God [not Allah, or whoever is worshipped by the last Anti Christ] to come in at exactly the point when the suffering for those believers is at its highest point. Matt. 24:21-31

 

Best wishes,

Henry

Which way will the wind be blowing? Genesis 41 vs 27

4 thoughts on “Which way will the wind be blowing? Genesis 41 vs 27

  • August 21, 2018 at 10:11 pm
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    I came here from WUWT… enjoyed your post here.

    “The atmosphere is not like a garbage dump where everything we put in stays there. The atmosphere is like a lake. To raise the level of a lake, we need to increase the Inflow. When the level rises enough to make outflow equal inflow, then the level remains constant. We call this the equilibrium level.”

    The above is a quote from Dr. Ed Berry, Climate Physicist, whose latest research has simplified explanations here and in other posts on his site: https://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/climate-change-emperors-have-no-clothes/

    His findings have yet to be refuted and are highly anticipated in the main. He has also tried to make his work understandable for the non-scientist, so I think you would find some of what you’re looking for there rather quickly then able to dive deeper into his more detailed papers if something attracts you.

    Reply
  • August 24, 2018 at 6:52 pm
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    Hi Michelle

    indeed
    something already known back in 1983 (I can look up the papers for you)
    if there is some global cooling [as determined by myself]
    there is more rain and precipitation around the equator and droughts and less rain above the [45] degrees.
    Simple physics. Really.
    What a pity that so much important information – like that of the flooding of the Nile – has all gone lost-
    slaughtered on the altar of ‘man made’ global warming….

    http://virtualacademia.com/pdf/cli267_293.pdf

    note Tables II and III

    Reply

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