+27 83 629-7690 henrypool7@gmail.com
Unexpected Ice!

Unexpected Ice!

For those of you who believe that all the ice of earth is melting, I have some good news. You will recall that in one of my previous posts I showed you this graph:

I was surprised to find that it IS getting cooler in Antarctica, measured two meters above the ground (1979-2021). The source of these data is from here. This being the case, I decided to look at the current surface area of the Antarctic that is covered by ice.

Fig. 1: Antarctic ice area. Source of cropped chart parts:  NSIDC.

Though Antarctic sea ice fell to a “record minimum” in 2017 – after having reached a “record high” in 2015 – the latest data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show sea ice at the South Pole has bounced back robustly since, surging some 500,000 sq km above the mean (1981-2010). On March 26, 2017, Antarctic sea ice measured 3.055 million sq km. Four years later, sea ice reached 5.103 million sq km. That is a difference of more than 2 million sq. km., which is an area more than 1.5 x the size of South Africa!

So why would Antarctic ice grow so quickly? If the ice had disappeared, many would blame it on greenhouse gases – absurd of course. Obviously, there is a complex array of natural factors at work – factors that climate alarmists consistently have ignored over the past decades. Note this graphic here:

Warming against latitude

Fig. 2: Warming of earth versus latitude.

Shown in the picture above is a summary of the warming of all the earth from NASA-GISS made from all the data we have from 1960-2019. It shows that Antarctica is largely blueish/white. This confirms that there are still a few places on earth where it IS getting cooler, and Antarctica is one of them! Fig. 2 (bottom) shows the amount of warming as measured against latitude.

I am a bit skeptical of some of the data shown here for the southern hemisphere (SH). My own results for the SH are even lower than what is indicated here by NASA-GISS. See here some of  my results   (South Africa is mostly on the -30 latitude.)

Never mind all of that, even assuming Fig. 2 (bottom) is completely correct, it still shows exactly what I have been saying all along. Clearly, the pattern of temperature trends for the Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes and the Antarctic is not consistent with hypothesized significant man-made global warming.  Since carbon dioxide concentrations are relatively uniform across the globe on a time scale of years and show persistent upward trends since the 1970’s, these flat and downward temperature trends indicate that man-made global warming is not dominant and that other factors are likely to be more dominant over the last 40 years.  The implication is that the observed upward temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere are also being dominated by other factors.  These other factors need to be resolved before any kind of accurate future climate predictions can be made. 

In my honest opinion, predictions made assuming that man-made global warming is dominant are likely to fail.

This article appeared also in Dutch, see here, https://www.climategate.nl/2021/04/alarm-ijs-groeit-aan/ 

 

 

Easter news letter

Easter news letter

Dear friend,

It is soon Easter and if ever I heard a song that stirred my soul to realize again the importance of Easter, it must be this one: https://breadonthewater.co.za/2021/03/26/easter-song/

Indeed, the lyrics do carry the most powerful message the world has ever heard!

My own favorite Easter story is of course the one where Jesus appeared to the two men from Emmaus. It brought me to a point where I looked at the Scriptures that Jesus must have been referring to, in Luke 24:27.

See here: https://breadonthewater.co.za/2019/04/15/easter/

As a man of science, and since I first attended an exhibition in 1977, I have always been interested in the Shroud of Turin – said to be the burial cloth of Jesus Christ. Indeed, I wrote something about the Shroud here:

https://breadonthewater.co.za/2017/02/20/if-god-exists-why-cannot-we-see-him/

I was surprised to hear that in the light of the pandemic they are apparently planning an exhibition of the Shroud on television on Holy Saturday, i.e. 3/4/2021. This is really something: exhibitions of the Shroud are normally very, very scarce. I quote from Msgr. Nosiligia, Wednesday 3/3/2021:

“In these troubled times we need to nurture and communicate our hope. And for us believers the most effective way to increase the hope of the whole world is through common prayer, by kneeling before the Lord. For this reason, we celebrate also on Holy Saturday, the day of silence, before the tomb of the Lord but also of the expectation of his resurrection, a special liturgy in front of the Shroud that reminds us of this event, the living center of our faith and our hope.’ More about this here: https://www.shroud.com/latebrak.htm

Irrespective of whether you believe the Shroud is real or not, you must agree with the bishop’s sentiments. Indeed, if there is anything I hope we have learned from the Corona crisis, it is our dependence on God for health! In this respect I should also mention that it seems many of us are even suffering from some form of depression now because of all the restrictions on church and family gatherings. Let us all kneel and pray that we will soon be free from the scourge of this disease.

Crystal Cathedral Ministries SA (CCMSA) is broadcasting a special Easter service via the internet. Dr. Schuller’s message centers around John 11:25 where Jesus said: “He who lives and believes in me shall never die’.  It is the video on top of our CCMSA page. Please click on the link below:

https://breadonthewater.co.za/ccmsa/

If you missed the testimony from Immaculee Ilibagiza on how she miraculously escaped the Rwandan genocide, you must watch the video just below our Easter service!

Many thanks to each one of you who continue to support Crystal Cathedral Ministries SA with your tithes and donations. May God bless you richly.

Like many other charities at this time of Covid 19, Heart for Children is also battling with lower-than-expected income. For the time being, we have therefore put our plans that we had at the beginning of the year, on hold. I am sure that things will improve as soon as the economy picks up some steam again. In the meantime, as an extra income for Heart for Children, Annette and Adele will make greeting cards (birthday, thank-you, Xmas, sympathy, etc.) and linen shopping bags, on order. See pictures at the far end of this news letter. All proceeds will go to Heart for Children. If you are interested in ordering this from us, please contact Annette at:  annette.pool@gmail.com

Every little bit helps!

We wish you a very blessed Easter and Passover. If you are going on holiday, please travel safely! Please do stay safe and healthy by taking the necessary precautions for Covid 19.

Henry (0836297690) and Annette (0834696875)

henrypool7@gmail.com

https://breadonthewater.co.za/

 

The 1000-year Eddy cycle

The 1000-year Eddy cycle

After my recent post: see here  someone  wrote in a comment on the Dutch website  that he still remembered that he had been taught or told in history lessons that Willem Barentz went out with maps and information from both Roman times and of the time of the Vikings. In my post I had mentioned that I thought that unfortunately he was 500 years too early or too late to find that route to sail to the east via the north. That was actually because I did remember something about a 1,000-year weather cycle. The ‘coincidence’ of that difference of the approximately 1000 years between the time of the Romans AD 0 (look: here) and AD 1000 for the time of the Vikingers (look:  here) brought me back to thinking  about that 1000 year Eddy cycle.

There is actually no clear story on the internet about the Eddy cycle and where it came from and you can ask yourself: why not? Somewhere, after a lot of detours, I came across the image shown below:

 

It is Fig. 16.2 of a book, see pg. 285 here  and it was apparently arrived at  by combining the results of a number of studies including Abreu  et al,2010. It looks to me like a kind of sine function that makes you think Eddy is a pure solar cycle. In any case, it becomes clear to us from this simple schematic presentation that it is apparently warmer than normal every 1000 years or so. By the way, it is soon clear that the teachers who wrote this chapter do not 100% agree with the IPCC’s conclusions.

Same Fig. 16.2 also reminded me of a representation by William Arnold about the Gleissberg cycle that I also told you about in a previous post: look here

The image of Arnold in 1985 looked very similar but I think he was out for a decade or so with the years over the length of the Gleissberg cycle (100 years instead of 90 years).

On p. 289 and 290 of the book and later in the chapter, many studies are mentioned that confirm the existence of a millennium cycle. I will give you a list of these at the very bottom of this post. Within the boundaries of this article, it is of course impossible to go into details of each report. Suffice to say that there is indeed ample evidence that the 1,000-year-old Eddy cycle is real. Note that Debret et al (2009) points out that the 1500 year Bond cycle is probably a combination of the 2300 year Hallstatt cycle and the 1000 year Eddy cycle. D’Andrea et al (2011) used a special way to detect the Eddy cycle but mentioned as a possible cause a combination of solar and volcanic activity. My own statistical measurements, as mentioned in my previous post, showed that modern warming is not evenly distributed globally, but apparently spreads slowly southwards from the north. This confirms my suspicion that global warming in modern times is driven both, by the sun from the outside in and by the earth from the inside to outside and that it has little or nothing to do with CO2.

Thanks to a comment made by someone on a blog, I also came across this report: https://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/JAKO201401657870968.pdf

It shows that some basic research was carried out in Korea into the longer term weather cycles and it included the Eddy cycle. By measuring the concentration of different isotopes, e.g., in the ice of Greenland, you can find out something about the long-term weather cycles that affect life on earth. Towards the end of the report, I read this:

‘In addition, the Eddy cycle also shows some difference between wavelet and spectral analysis, and also among the 14C, 10Be, and 18O records. Interestingly, however, all the records of 14C, 10Be, and 18O reveal that Eddy cycle is predominant during the early half of the Holocene.’

Unfortunately, I suspect that something here was lost in translation. They meant of course the most recent part of the Holocene. If we go back to Table 4 in same report, we note that the duration of this cycle can vary by between 940 and 1000 years. So, the margin given here is much smaller than the 800-1200 as shown in the first image above.

I then went back to the first original analysis of ice that I had seen, see this report here:

https://foresight.org/some-historical-perspective/

From the above report, I just show you here the third graph: 

We see from this graph on the y-axis the derived temperature of a certain place in Greenland set against time. The graph ends at 1950 – apparently younger ice does not work.

It turns out that in the time of the Vikings, the temperature at that place in Greenland where the sample was taken went to just over -30.5. in the time of Christ, it was almost -29.5. And in the Minoan period before that, it even went even as high as -29.

This means that from 1950 onwards, a warming of + 2.5C  (from -31.5 to –29) , especially in the northern hemisphere, can be counted as completely normal and natural.

And nobody has ever seen that….?

 

Determinations of the 1000 year Eddy cycle and/or confirmation of  millennium cycles in the Holocene

General:

Steinhilber et al, 2009 & 2010; Ma, 2007; Abreu et al, 2010; Christiansen and Ljungqvist, 2012; Esper et al 2012b; Lungqvist, 2010 & 2012; Debret et al, 2009; Obrochta et al, 2012. Jiang et al, 2002 & 2005 & 2015; Oppo et al, 2003; Berner et al, 2008;Thornalley et al, 2009; D’Andrea et al, 2011; Mermil et al, 2012; Moros et al. 2012; Soon et al, 2014; Masson et al, 2000; Loehle en Singer, 2010; Singer en Avery, 2008; Perry en Hsu, 2000;

North America:

Marchitto and DeMenocal, 2003; Li et al, 2007; Willard et al, 2005; Cleroux et al, 2012; Marchitto et al, 2010; Denton en Karlen, 1973; Viau et al, 2006;

South America:

Evangelista et al, 2014; Chiessi et al, 2014; Vuille et al, 2012; Canniupan et al, 2014;

Europe:

Helama et al, 2010; Ojala et al, 2015; Esper et al, 2012 a, b; Fohlmeister et al, 2012; Mueller et al, 2005; Mangini et al, 2007; Nieman et al, 2007; Magny, 2004; Jalali et al 2015; Pena et al, 2010; Fletcher et al, 2013; Rodrigo Gamiz et al, 2014; Dermody et al, 2012;

Azia:

Thamban et al, 2007; Gupta et al, 2005; Menzel et al, 2014; Xu et al, 2002 & 2006 & 2015; Yu et al, 2012; Liu et al, 2011 & 2014; Lim et al, 2005; Oppo et al, 2009; Max et al 2012; Kravchinsky et al, 2013;

This article is also available in Dutch. See here: https://www.climategate.nl/2021/03/de-duizend-jarige-eddy-cyclus/

 

In Memoriam: Gisela Nicholson

In Memoriam: Gisela Nicholson

On 27.01.2021 Pretoria woke up to hear of  the passing on of Gisela Nicholson. Although we know that she is in her heavenly home that He has prepared for her (John Chapter 14), I am sure that it has left everyone here who knew her all deeply saddened. Our sincere condolences to her son Philip and his wife Penny (Philip is a board member of both Heart for Children and Crystal Cathedral Ministries SA!), and her daughters Rhoda, Miriam and their families.

I last saw Gisela when I delivered the calendars that she had bought in support of our charity, Heart for Children. My wife and I were surprised when we also saw her at the recent wedding of  Antoinette van de Meulen. This was just before the corona. It appeared that, like us, she also supported the “Word for the World” who does Bible translation work, that Antoinette is involved with.

What can I say about Gisela? I think she really belongs in the Hall of Faith that Paul speaks about. She was a hero. She never complained about anything. She had a heart for people and gave her time to all ministries that happened to cross her path. I first got to meet her and Kenneth when she wanted to help the prison ministry that both myself and Philip were involved with. 

I am sure that one of the things we discussed at that time in Sinoville, and subsequent later meetings, was the type of  interaction we should take when first approaching and befriending a prisoner, by letter writing and visits. In fact, from those meetings, this letter may have found some of its origin: 

Letter to a prisoner (Prison Ministry)

 I invite you to watch Gisela’s  memorial service (see below). You will be amazed by the goodness of  Gisela’ s heart and how many charities, missions and ministries she was involved with. After the service, I realized that in a way she and myself had been much alike. Before 1995, we had both spent a lot of time trying to convince our spiritual leaders that apartheid was wrong and it seems we suffered exactly the same frustrations in trying to get things straight…. 

It appears that the last mission that Gisela was helping, was under the impression that the money they received came from overseas funders, when in fact it had really been coming from her own pocket…..Can I propose that we honor Gisela’s life by making a donation to this charity? Bank details of Lefika Camp Site of the Jubilee Hospital in Hammanskraal: 

Account Name: Lefika Camp

Bank: First National Bank

Branch: 210648

Account Number: 62027561051