As a result of all this unnecessary mass media attention, there are genuinely many people now who fear that climate change will cause havoc in their lifetime. For what it is worth, I will keep on doing my bit to show and tell you that there really is nothing to worry about. My results are showing that there has hardly been any climate change at all in South Africa. A statistical analysis of 11 weather stations with good daily data showed that, on average since 1977, the temperature has only changed by 0.007K per decade; that is only 0.032 degrees C in total from 1977 up until 2024. (Note that the particularly warm summer that we recently had here is not included in this data set). My results are reported below:

DISCUSSION

Some discernable warming is evident in Johannesburg, Cape Town and East-London. Obviously, these are the cities showing the biggest growth since 1977 and we would expect to see some warming here, especially due to the so-called urban heat effect (UHE) – i.e. more buildings, more tar and more paving, all trapping more heat. I also found that more greening, i.e. people planting more lawns, more trees, more forests and bringing more agriculture, also traps some heat, especially in the night. See footnote e). Also: greener = blacker = less reflectivity (looking from space) = changed albedo = earth traps more heat.

That poses a question: do we want our world to be greener (trapping more heat) or not?

As a control sample, I included Marion Island which lies in the middle of the Indian ocean. Evidence seems to support the argument that Marion Island warms/warmed as much as does the Indian ocean. See footnote d). I therefore sort of expected the average for the whole of South Africa to be the same or similar as that of Marion Island…

Seems to me, factors other than ocean also play a role. Never mind that, let us say that that is the maximum error in my statistical evaluation of SA temperatures. In other words, if you do not trust my average at the end of my results table, look at the result for Marion Island. It is hardly even a quarter of a degree C in total since 1977. You cannot feel and hardly measure such a small change. Please don’t lose any sleep over it.

CONCLUSION

If carbon dioxide (CO2) were the reason for any extra warming, or even any global warming, the results city to city should have been more similar, as the CO2 spreads evenly in the air. The variation in the results again prove that it is not the extra carbon dioxide in the air that is posing a problem. Pointing to carbon dioxide as the source of (extra) warming is therefore incorrect.

See footnotes b) and f).

RECOMMENDATION

It is time to read that book that I helped getting translated…. See footnote g)

Referenced reports (just click):

a) Average temperature change in South Africa.xlsx

b) An Inconvenient Truth | Bread on the water

c) 27!!! | Bread on the water

d) Surface Air Temperature (SAT) versus Sea Surface Temperature (SST) | Bread on the water

e) Global warming due to, ehhh…., Global greening! | Bread on the water

f) https://breadonthewater.co.za/2022/12/15/an-evaluation-of-the-greenhouse-effect-by-carbon-dioxide/

g) The Chronicles of the Climate Hysteria | Bread on the water