Figure 1. Total consumed energy for the world in BBOE. Data source: OurWorldinData.org
I hope you looked at the video’s in The Green Illusion | Bread on the water Now let us look at some data. Note that BBOE stands for billions of barrels of oil-equivalent energy. Figure 1 shows that the increase in global energy consumption since 1960 is quite linear (R2 = 0.99) and increasing at a rate of 1.1 billion BOE/year. Modern renewables, contrary to popular belief, are not even increasing enough to keep up with the growth in energy consumption. As a result, fossil fuel use is increasing, not decreasing globally. Total growth in renewables is so small, it only covers 7% of the increase in energy consumption. You can only produce and install so many solar panels and windmills, and they don’t last that long in the open.
With the data from Fig. 1 it is possible to do a simple projection / prediction of energy use in the future:
Discussion and Conclusions
At the current price of $119 per barrel of oil, $66 per ton of coal, and $7.28 per MMBTU (as of 6/15/2022) there are no economic constraints preventing the development of our abundant natural energy resources. However, the political, regulatory, and judicial (as in environmental lawsuits) hurdles are currently prohibitive. Global prosperity and energy availability are very strongly correlated, and if fossil fuels are curtailed, more people will become impoverished, global health will decline It is clear from the above data that growth in renewables will not make up the difference.
World governments are clearly on a dangerous and unsustainable path. Fossil fuels are essential for our well-being and survival. People know this and want to buy them; thus, we observe high prices in a time of abundant natural resources. It is only the governments that stand in the way – our elected officials and the unelected bureaucrats. We need to radically change our governments, and quickly. The impact of greenhouse gases is small, and may even be beneficial, this is not true of our current governments.
Andy May’s original article is here: Replacing the World’s Fossil Fuels – Watts Up With That?
Andy May’s latest book is The Great Climate Change Debate.