I am sure most of you are well aware that there must be strong relationship between the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere and the warmth of the water in the oceans, summarized by the chemical reactions (1) and (2):

HCO3- + UV/heat = CO2 (g) + OH- (1)

Carbon dioxide is the gas on which all carbon life depends. Every year ca. 100 billion tons of CO2 is gassing out from the oceans into the atmosphere due to the heat from the sun (Roemps Chemie Lexicon). For nature to keep the balance of CO2 in the atmosphere, a similar amount must dissolve again there where the water is very cold, for example in the polar regions, deep sea, etc.

CO2 (g) + 2H2O + cold = HCO3- + H3O+ (2)

Someone recently pointed me to the work done on this relationship by the late prof. Lance Endersbee. To quote from his 2008 report: see Endersbee – Carbon dioxide and the oceans.pdf

‘In the past, sea temperatures were obtained from measurements by passing ships in the sea lanes of the world. It is only in the past three decades that more accurate data on sea surface temperatures has become available. The analysis of this recent data by the author shows that: a) the oceans regulate the composition of the atmosphere; b) the influence on climate of human-generated carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is negligible; and c) global climate change has natural causes.

The oceans and the atmosphere are quite shallow in relation to the vast surface area of the oceans. The interaction of the atmosphere and the oceans is essentially a phenomenon of the ocean surface. It would be expected that there would be almost a direct correlation between levels of CO2 in the air and the global mean sea surface temperatures, and, indeed, that is the case. It is possible to plot an experience curve of the relationship between ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels. To do so it is necessary to recognize that the oceans have a vast storage capacity for heat and dissolved gases, and that changes are slow. On the other hand, the atmosphere has a much more rapid response time. If we use a 12-month moving average of the atmospheric CO2 concentration and a 21-year moving average of the more accurate recent data on global average sea surface temperatures, a remarkably clear experience curve is obtained. The 12-month moving average of CO2 levels filters out the variations of the annual cycle and, in related analyses, provides a view of the influence of other natural events. The 21-year moving average of sea surface temperature covers the complete solar cycle, including the change in magnetic polarity of the sun, the El Niño and La Niña influences on global climate, and recognizing the vast storage capacity of the oceans for CO2 and the slow response time of the oceans. The chart (graph) shows that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere and global average sea surface temperatures are locked together. The correlation (R²=0.996) is so firm it is reasonable to include it as a condition in the computer simulations used to study climate change.’ End quote.

The professor’s graph shows that the relationship between the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and the warming anomaly of the oceans is given by: y=143.6x+334.1 where y = ppm CO2 in the atmosphere (as measured in Mauna Loa, Hawaii) and x = the globally evaluated warming anomaly (delta T, in degrees C) of the sea surface temperature (SST).

As stated earlier, unfortunately Prof. Endersbee passed away in 2009, so we have no further data from him to see how his relationship would hold up to today. I was curious to see this and decided to look at two simple wft plots, one just to check his own graph (1985-2009) and another one to see where we stand today (1980-2025):

Here we see from the trendline that the delta T from 1985 to 2009 is indeed about 0.35C, as he already had determined in a more accurate way. We calculate the atmospheric CO2 concentration: 143.6 x 0.35 +334.1 = 384 ppm, which is of course exactly what it was in 2009.

Here we see from the trendline that the delta T from 1980 to 2025 is about 0.6C. We calculate the atmospheric CO2 concentration from Enderbee’s formula: 143.6 x 0.6 +334.1 = 420 ppm, which is of course almost exactly what it is today….

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Note that the way I determined delta T is of course much more inaccurate than Prof. Endersbee would have done it, working with the original data, as he had explained; but clearly, the results of the investigation suggest that it is the warming of the oceans that determines the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is exactly as professor Endersbee proposed, namely, ‘that the oceans regulate the composition of CO2 in the atmosphere’. It appears that all our human-generated carbon dioxide has little or no influence on the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere….