After my recent post: see here  someone  wrote in a comment on the Dutch website  that he still remembered that he had been taught or told in history lessons that Willem Barentz went out with maps and information from both Roman times and of the time of the Vikings. In my post I had mentioned that I thought that unfortunately he was 500 years too early or too late to find that route to sail to the east via the north. That was actually because I did remember something about a 1,000-year weather cycle. The ‘coincidence’ of that difference of the approximately 1000 years between the time of the Romans AD 0 (look: here) and AD 1000 for the time of the Vikingers (look:  here) brought me back to thinking  about that 1000 year Eddy cycle.

There is actually no clear story on the internet about the Eddy cycle and where it came from and you can ask yourself: why not? Somewhere, after a lot of detours, I came across the image shown below:

It is Fig. 16.2 of a book, see pg. 285 here  and it was apparently arrived at  by combining the results of a number of studies including Abreu  et al,2010. It looks to me like a kind of sine function that makes you think Eddy is a pure solar cycle. In any case, it becomes clear to us from this simple schematic presentation that it is apparently warmer than normal every 1000 years or so. By the way, it is soon clear that the teachers who wrote this chapter do not 100% agree with the IPCC’s conclusions.

Same Fig. 16.2 also reminded me of a representation by William Arnold about the Gleissberg cycle that I also told you about in a previous post: look here  The image of Arnold in 1985 looked very similar but I think he was out for a decade or so with the years over the length of the Gleissberg cycle (100 years instead of ca. 90 years).

On p. 289 and 290 of the book and later in the chapter, many studies are mentioned that confirm the existence of a millennium cycle. I will give you a list of these at the very bottom of this post. Within the boundaries of this article, it is of course impossible to go into details of each report. Suffice to say that there is indeed ample evidence that the 1,000-year-old Eddy cycle is real. Note that Debret et al (2009) points out that the 1500 year Bond cycle is probably a combination of the 2300 year Hallstatt cycle and the 1000 year Eddy cycle. D’Andrea et al (2011) used a special way to detect the Eddy cycle but mentioned as a possible cause a combination of solar and volcanic activity. My own statistical measurements, as mentioned in my previous post, showed that modern warming is not evenly distributed globally, but apparently spreads slowly southwards from the north. This confirms my suspicion that global warming in modern times is driven both, by the sun from the outside in and by the earth from the inside to outside and that it has little or nothing to do with CO2.

Thanks to a comment made by someone on a blog, I also came across this report: https://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/JAKO201401657870968.pdf

It shows that some basic research was carried out in Korea into the longer term weather cycles and it included the Eddy cycle. By measuring the concentration of different isotopes, e.g., in the ice of Greenland, you can find out something about the long-term weather cycles that affect life on earth. Towards the end of the report, I read this:

‘In addition, the Eddy cycle also shows some difference between wavelet and spectral analysis, and also among the 14C, 10Be, and 18O records. Interestingly, however, all the records of 14C, 10Be, and 18O reveal that Eddy cycle is predominant during the early half of the Holocene.’

Unfortunately, I suspect that something here was lost in translation. They meant of course the most recent part of the Holocene. If we go back to Table 4 in same report, we note that the duration of this cycle can vary by between 940 and 1000 years. So, the margin given here is much smaller than the 800-1200 as shown in the first image above.

I then went back to the first original analysis of ice that I had seen, see this report here:

https://foresight.org/some-historical-perspective/

From the above report, I just show you here the third graph: 

We see from this graph on the y-axis the derived temperature of a certain place in Greenland set against time. The graph ends at 1950 – apparently younger ice does not work.

It turns out that in the time of the Vikings, the temperature at that place in Greenland where the sample was taken went to just over -30.5. in the time of Christ, it was almost -29.5. And in the Minoan period before that, it even went even as high as -29.

This means that from 1950 onwards, a warming of + 2.5C  (from -31.5 to –29) , especially in the northern hemisphere, can be counted as completely normal and natural.

And nobody has ever seen that….?

Determinations of the 1000 year Eddy cycle and/or confirmation of  millennium cycles in the Holocene

General:

Steinhilber et al, 2009 & 2010; Ma, 2007; Abreu et al, 2010; Christiansen and Ljungqvist, 2012; Esper et al 2012b; Lungqvist, 2010 & 2012; Debret et al, 2009; Obrochta et al, 2012. Jiang et al, 2002 & 2005 & 2015; Oppo et al, 2003; Berner et al, 2008;Thornalley et al, 2009; D’Andrea et al, 2011; Mermil et al, 2012; Moros et al. 2012; Soon et al, 2014; Masson et al, 2000; Loehle en Singer, 2010; Singer en Avery, 2008; Perry en Hsu, 2000;

North America:

Marchitto and DeMenocal, 2003; Li et al, 2007; Willard et al, 2005; Cleroux et al, 2012; Marchitto et al, 2010; Denton en Karlen, 1973; Viau et al, 2006;

South America:

Evangelista et al, 2014; Chiessi et al, 2014; Vuille et al, 2012; Canniupan et al, 2014;

Europe:

Helama et al, 2010; Ojala et al, 2015; Esper et al, 2012 a, b; Fohlmeister et al, 2012; Mueller et al, 2005; Mangini et al, 2007; Nieman et al, 2007; Magny, 2004; Jalali et al 2015; Pena et al, 2010; Fletcher et al, 2013; Rodrigo Gamiz et al, 2014; Dermody et al, 2012;

Azia:

Thamban et al, 2007; Gupta et al, 2005; Menzel et al, 2014; Xu et al, 2002 & 2006 & 2015; Yu et al, 2012; Liu et al, 2011 & 2014; Lim et al, 2005; Oppo et al, 2009; Max et al 2012; Kravchinsky et al, 2013;

This article is also available in Dutch. See here: https://www.climategate.nl/2021/03/de-duizend-jarige-eddy-cyclus/