I recently came across this paper by Antero Ollila:
It is a lengthy report, which is an indication of how difficult the subject is. I just quote its abstract here:
‘An updated effective radiative forcing (ERF) value for constructing a simplified logarithmic forcing equation, and a transient climate response (TCR) value, are presented for CO2, CH4, and N2O. The results are based on line-by-line (LBL) calculations utilizing the HITRAN database and (using) the CERES radiation flux data for fine-tuning. The ERF value derived when doubling the CO2 concentration from 280 ppm (2xCO2) is 2.65 Wm-2 which is in line with the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) values of climate models referred to by the IPCC. The difference between the ERF values comes from the stratospheric cooling effect. It is a question about an essential paradigm change of the IPCC approach. In the former 2xCO2 value of 3.7 Wm -2, its portion was about 5 %, and in the present value, it is about 30 %. According to this study, the same effect is 10 %. The updated TCR value is 0.7 ±0.15 °C.’
End of citation.
I have often argued that the warming effect of increased CO2 has never been properly weighed against its cooling effects. Ollila’s analysis and approach appear plausible and correct, or at the very least, in my humble opinion, it moves the controversy around this issue into the right direction. At this stage I am not certain whether he fully accounted for all shortwave (SW) cooling effects caused by CO2 absorption in the 0–5 µm range. Be that as it may, his findings suggest that doubling atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm to 560 ppm would produce an equilibrium warming of about 0.7 ± 0.15 °C. My chain of reasoning from this paper, assuming all his measurements, assumptions and calculations are correct, is:
(Please note: [CO2] = CO2 concentration, GH = Greenhouse, W=Watt)
2 x [CO2] gives a radiative forcing of ca. 2.65 W/m2 (instead of the conventional 3.7W/m2). Climate-feedbacks are thought to be weak or even slightly negative overall.
So now I calculate the current increase in temperature due to more CO2 as follows:
Pre-Industrial (ca. 1850) = 280 ppm CO2, the doubling = 560 ppm CO2
Currently the [CO2] is 420 ppm. Using the applicable formula, we find the warming from 280 to 420 to be
0.7 x ln (420/280) / ln (2) = 0.41K
Using the confidence levels that Ollila applies, the lower estimate is
ln(420/280) / ln (2) x (0.7 -0.15) = 0.32K,
the upper estimate is
ln(420/280) / ln 2 x (0.7+0.15) = 0.50K
It follows from this, that, according to Ollila, the warming attributable to the increase from 280 ppm to the current 420 ppm amounts to 0.41K +/- 0.09K. Note that I am not saying that man is responsible for all the extra 140 ppm. It is just that all the extra CO2 could have a warming effect of between 0.3K and 0.5K. To put this value into some perspective: it is relatively small compared with the commonly quoted total greenhouse effect of about 33K. Also remember that natural temperature change according to the Eddy cycle, which is currently at or around its peak, could be as much as +2.5K in the northern hemisphere, as shown in the third graph of my report here:
De duizendjarige Eddy-cyclus – Climategate Klimaat
Another point to consider is that, except water vapor, all GH gases behave like ideal gases, meaning that irrespective of their molecular weight the concentration in a vessel is the same everywhere. Therefore, if the observed warming were mainly due to an increase in GH gases, we would expect to see a similar rate of warming everywhere on earth. But the observed warming is in fact not so ‘global’. I refer to the graph below which is a summary of the UAH satellite measurements since 1979.
The current result from A.Ollila shows again that warming due to more GH gases is in fact not the major cause or driver of the actual observed warming of earth.
Dear Friend!
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Take a listen as RSG radio provides an opportunity for Annette to speak for Heart for Children!
Simon of Cyrene reflects…
I did not wake up that morning expecting to carry a cross.
I was just passing through. Just another man in the crowd.
Just another face in Jerusalem. Just another pilgrim with dust on my sandals and plans for the day.
I had children to think about. Work waiting.
Responsibilities.
A life that felt ordinary.
And then Rome interrupted me. The soldiers’ hands were rough. They did not ask. They seized me.
“You. Carry it.”
I remember the weight of it before it ever touched my shoulders.
The splintered wood.
The metallic scent of blood already soaked into it.
The murmuring crowd.
The sound of women weeping. The hatred.
The chaos.
And then I saw Him.
His back was torn open.
His face barely recognizable.
Blood matted in His hair.
A crown of thorns pressed into skin.
He was trying to carry it.
Trying.
But His body was giving out under the weight.
And suddenly, that weight became mine.
I wanted to protest.
I wanted to say, “This is not my fight. I have done nothing wrong. I do not belong in this story.”
But before the words could leave my mouth, the wood pressed into my shoulder.
The cross was heavier than I imagined.
It dug into flesh.
It scraped bone.
It pressed the air out of my lungs.
And I was angry.
Angry at the soldiers.
Angry at the crowd.
Angry that my day had been interrupted by someone else’s suffering.
But then I looked at Him.
He was close enough that I could hear His breathing.
Labored.
Shallow.
Determined.
His eyes met mine.
There was no resentment there.
No shame.
No apology.
Only love.
Love?
For me?
I was the one forced to carry His cross.
I was the unwilling participant.
The drafted helper.
The man caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.
And yet when His eyes met mine, it felt like I had been chosen.
Chosen.
I thought I was helping Him.
But somewhere between Pilate’s Hall and Golgotha, I realized something terrifying and holy, He was letting me carry it.
The weight on my shoulders was wood and blood and splinters.
But the weight on His shoulders was the sin of the world.
My burden was temporary.
His was eternal.
And still…
He let me step into it.
He let me feel the heaviness.
He let me taste the cost.
He let me walk beside Him in the suffering.
I had planned to simply observe Passover.
Instead, I carried the Lamb.
I did not know then that this cross would not be the end.
I did not know that three days later the stone would roll.
That death would bow.
That the One I walked beside would rise in glory.
All I knew was the weight.
And sometimes I think about that day when my life was interrupted by obedience I did not volunteer for.
* I have come to understand something since then. . .
Some crosses we do not choose.
Some burdens find us.
Some callings feel forced upon our shoulders by circumstances we did not pray for.
But if you look closely—
He is always near.
Breathing.
Bleeding.
Walking beside you.
And what feels like punishment
may be proximity.
What feels like interruption
may be invitation.
What feels like inconvenience
may be initiation into glory.
I thought Rome conscripted me.
But Heaven had written my name into the story long before that morning.
I carried His cross for a mile.
He carried mine for eternity.
And now when I feel the weight of obedience,
when I feel pressed into service I did not plan,
when suffering brushes up against my life without permission—
I remember His eyes.
And I no longer ask,
“Why me?”
I whisper instead,
“Let me be close enough to feel the weight.” . . .
This video by John Lennox will really make you think. The beast and its mark are already here. This is thought provoking……even scary.
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